Red sky at night, sailors delight.

How do you predict the weather? The word “predicting” may not be the best word to explain weather forecasting because of the subtle intonations of prophesy that are implied. You don’t need psychic ability to forecast the weather. However, before weather predictions were based on the analysis of meteorological data, early methods of study linked weather patterns to the stars. Hipparchus’ astrometeorological calendar may date back to the fifth century BC. The ancient Mediterranean Works and Days was a bit of a Farmer’s Almanac, and in the Christian Bible a rainbow is mentioned at the end of the epic flood.

The barometer was invented in 1643 and Fahrenheit, mercury-based thermometers were built in the 1700’s. In the early 1900’s physicist Vilhelm Bjerknes worked with a team of scientists, to develop the fundamental meteorology principles. Over half a century later the TIROS IX satellite brought us the first complete view of earth’s weather. We have been moving closer to science and farther from interpreting signs and omens.

In the days before weather monitoring tools, it took an educated guess, like “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.” and “Red sky in the morning, sailor’s take warning.” to try and figure out what the weather was going to do. What does a red sky at night have to do with the weather? The sun sets in the west. If the sky is red and clear, that implies that dry weather will come. A rainbow seen in the evening also probably means that there is good weather to come, because the sunlight creating the rainbow is coming from the west.

Weather occurs in a layer of the atmosphere called the troposphere. The troposphere begins 10 miles above the equator and is only 4 miles above the poles. Science has shown that the earth has a breathing rhythm; hot air from the equator heading for the poles to cool, and back again to the Equator to warm. This is how wind is generated. As the wind stirs the weather, the water feeds it.

The more that we understand about the weather, the better we can forecast it. The tools of amateur weather monitoring include temperature and barometric pressure measurement, anemometers and rain gauges. Many of these tools are now automated, and some even wireless. These advancements make weather tracking comfortable, easy, and the data is ready in real-time. Don’t wait for the nightly news to find out what the weather is doing, check your own weather station.


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